Betting progressions are nothing new at blackjack. Ever since the game was devised, players have been trying to hit on a magic formula for when to increase their bets.
Truth be told, there is no magic formula, but a friend of mine decided to give it a go when he spotted a new one in April. He was at a $10 blackjack table, sitting next to a player with a four-step progression/regression. He’d start with a $10 bet, and if he won he would raise to $30. After a second win, he’d drop to $20, but winning a third in a row brought a $60 bet.
After any loss, he’d drop back to $10, and he’d also drop back to $10 after the $60 bet, won or lose.
My friend decided to give that 1x-3x-2x-6x pattern a go, and won $650.
“I tried it, and it coincided with a ridiculous hot streak on the table,” he wrote. “ I’m normally a tight, tight player, so 6x betting once was a jump for me.”
I him told a progression like that can lead to some spectacular wins, but it also leads to more frequent losing sessions.
Let’s look at the pattern in pieces. If you win $10 and lose $30 on the second hand, that’s a $20 loss, whereas flat-betting $10 breaks even after a win and a loss. With two wins and a loss, the progression has a $20 overall win. That beats the $10 win you’d have after flat-betting two wins and a loss.
With three wins and a loss, you win $10, $30 and $20, but then lose $60 and just break even. Flat betting three $10 wins followed by a loss brings a $20 profit, so you risk less but win more than with the progression.
It’s not till you win four in a row that the progression pays big. Wins of $10, $30, $20 and $60 total $120, three times the $40 you’d win with flat $10 bets. If you’re having one of those all too uncommon nights when the wins are fast and frequent, this 1-3-2-6 progression will fill your wallet. On an ordinary night, well, let the buyer beware
