Why Should You Follow Basic Strategy in Blackjack?

By John Grochowski on Wednesday March 22, 2017

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Last month I relayed comments from a blackjack player who had trouble convincing himself to follow the basic strategy play of doubling down on 11 when the dealer had a 10 face up.

That brought messages from other readers who had their own moments of queasiness over basic strategy.

 “Can you provide expected return on hitting as opposed to standing on 12 vs. dealer 2 or 3 and standing on 9-9 as opposed to splitting vs. dealer 7? “ one player asked. “Those always made me squeamish.”

Let’s look at the numbers, assuming a six-deck game in which the dealer hits soft 17 – the most common situation in American casinos.

Let’s look at 12 vs. 2 first. Assuming your 12 is 10-2, then vs. you lose 28.9 cents per dollar wagered by standing or 25.2 cents by hitting. Other compositions vary slightly: Your average loss is 25.6 cents with 9-3, and 25.4 cents with either 8-4 or 7-5.  On all, you lose slightly less by hitting than by standing.

With 12 vs. 3, it’s closer. You lose 24.9 cents per dollar wagered by standing. As with 12 vs. 2, you lose less when you hit. Average losses per $1 wagered are 23.16 cents with 10-2, 23.73 with 9-3, 23.33 with 8-4 and 23.22 with 7-5.

As for standing on a pair of 9s when the dealer has a 7 face up, you have a leg up because the dealer will have a 10 value face down 30.7 percent of the time. On those hands, your 18 beats the dealer’s 17.

It’s a strong position for the player, and if you stand your average profit is 39.96 cents per $1 wagered.

Players are tempted to split the 9s and try for a double profit, but 9 is not a strong a start as 18. You’ll wind up with enough weak hands that splitting the pair actually decreases your profit to 36.42 cents per $1 of your original wager.

By splitting, you double your risk but slightly decrease your profit. That’s why the basic strategy chart says to stand on 9-9 vs. 7.